U.S. Bank Championship of Milwaukee

The British Open wasn't the reality show of last month's U.S. Open many fans were undoubtedly hoping for, but Tiger put on a display of shot-making with a wise game plan that may rank as the best performance of all his now 11 major victories.

What was exciting for purists was that Tiger didn't use driver last week (he used it once), opting instead for, yup, his 2 iron, and occasionally his 3-wood off the tee. The trusty and true 2 iron. It's almost impossible to not hit a 2 iron straight. And impossible to hit it 300 yards, which is why he used it---to avoid those nasty pot bunkers. It worked all week because Tiger pretended his other long irons were eights or nines or wedges---what he'd normally hit into greens if he was using driver.

On his second hole Sunday, paired with Sergio Garcia, Mister babache he was 100 yards farther back in the fairway than Garcia, who took driver off the tee. Garcia's strategy may have seemed Lefty-like and stupid, but you could argue that if he got his second shots in closer than Tiger and gave himself more birdie opportunities on the par fours, he would have had a chance to catch Tiger. Here's what happened instead: Tiger, again, from 100 yards farther back than Garcia, hit his second shot inside of where Garcia's ended up. Then he lagged close for an easy tap in par. Garcia three-putted for bogey. The same thing happened on the next hole and Tiger's one shot lead over Garcia was three just like that. He added an eagle on the 5th two holes later and the game was over, despite a decent and ever futile charge by Chris DiMarco. After those early three-putts, Garcia looked every bit the clown in his canary yellow get up. It was a substance over style kind of day, kind of tournament, and the biggest prude was Woods. A 2 iron?!?! Good on ya, Tiger.

Last week: Tiger's win was nice but at 5-1 with 1/6 unit, I only made $833.33. Adam Scott, at 40-1 would have been much nicer, but he couldn't do anything Sunday like the rest of them. In the head-to-head I got served, picking Monty over Sergio. That was 1/3 unit, or $333.33, lost, which brought the week's total to plus $533.33. Now, close viewers of this page will note that I changed the betting structure recently. For most of the year we'd been putting 2 units on the H2H and one 1 (1/3, 1/3, 1/3) on the outright. Recently, I've cut that in half---from 3 total units to 1.5 (1 on the H2H, 1/6, 1/6, 1/6 on the outright). That means that my bottom line is not what it appears, meaning I'm down less than the $21,036 doing the math the old way. Obviously, it's not half that figure because I'd have to look at the winning picks and losing picks, H2H and outrights, and of course the odds. In the spirit of the fight to get back on top, though, I'm not going to recalculate. Also, I'm going to refer to the season tally in units from now on, rounding the ",036" situations above. So, the bottom line is last week I finished up half a unit, bringing the season total to -21 units.

At this week's U.S. Bank Championship of Milwaukee, Take Carlos Franco (100-1), 1/6 unit: Franco's won this tournament twice, in 1999 when it was known as the Greater Milwaukee Open and in 2004 when it was the U.S. Bank in Milwaukee (did they add "Championship" to the name last year because people thought it was a big, gray, square building on a corner block in Milwaukee and not a golf tournament?). It's a short course at 6,700+. Franco is a long hitter who hits greens. Putting, which was the strong suit of Ben Crane last year, is a big problem.

Take Ben Crane (16-1), 1/6 unit: Players rarely successfully defend titles in golf (unless their name is Tiger) but the timing looks good for this pick. Crane's coming off a T11 at Hoylake and a T6 before that, at the Booz Allen. He's still one of the best putters on Tour and his short length off the tee won't hurt him here.

Take Bob Estes (100-1), 1/6 unit: He's got a T10 and three T25s this year. He finished T26 in Milwaukee last year. He's pretty bland as a player---doesn't do anything exceptionally well or exceptionally badly. And that's the kind of player who can win a weak-field tournament. Then again, anyone can win a weak-field tournament.

In the head-to-head, take Crane to finish higher than Kenny Perry (1-1), 1 unit: Perry is coming off a missed cut in Liverpool. He may be the most consistent hitter of greens on Tour, but putting is a problem. I'm going with Crane's putter this week.

Jeremy Church is a documented member of the Professional Handicappers League.
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